Dynamic Deception *
نویسندگان
چکیده
We model dynamic deception exercises in Ponzi schemes, war, terrorism, industrial/political espionage, and insider trading. We introduce a new class of competitive continuous time games with an informed player having an unbounded action intensity, whose actions are partially observed by a rival, or sequence of rivals. We find extremely strong square-root logarithm decreasing returns to deception. We provide economic formulations and analyses of espionage, disinformation, and obfuscation. Notably, we establish a globally concave value of information (espionage). Disinformation is always substantial, and pushes confidence in the wrong state above 86%. Finally, obfuscation rises as the public grows more uncertain. This paper was begun when Axel was visiting the University of Michigan. We thank seminar participants at Texas, and especially Max Stinchcombe. Earlier less focused versions of this paper were presented at GAMES 2008, Decentralization (2008), Stoneybrook (2008), George Washington, Georgetown, Michigan, Toronto, and Western Ontario. Lones thanks the NSF for research funding.
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